On the Fundamental Limits of Prefill-Based Decoding Length Prediction

Counts differ because each database indexes a different set of publications. We treat OpenAlex as the canonical count; Google Scholar is not shown (no API, and crawling it violates its ToS).

Predicting how many tokens a large language model (LLM) will decode, using only prefill-phase hidden states, is a key primitive for inference scheduling. We show that current benchmarks conflate predictor quality with task hardness: when the target model, dataset, or sampling configuration changes, reported accuracy collapses even though the predictor is unchanged. We trace this instability to an overlooked error source---the inherent stochasticity of autoregressive decoding---and derive bounds that every prefill-side method must obey. Our analysis treats decoding as a stopped stochastic process. The per-step stopping probability of a response is not constant but ramps up over hundreds of steps, so the decode length inherits a central limit theorem from the many local decisions that determine where a response ends; this yields per-prompt normality with an explicit error term, together with an affine variance law $σ=αμ+b$ whose slope is the coefficient of variation of the number of response segments. Empirically, the normal law reproduces the per-prompt MAE and the central mass of the decode-length distribution to within a few percent, and the residual departures from normality (mild right skew, slight excess kurtosis) are the ones predicted by the sampling-noise correction. Under fixed model, data, and sampling conditions, a broad design space of predictors (MLP, EGTP, FiLM, soft-label, and Mixture-of-Experts variants) converges to similar performance close to the bound, confirming that \emph{system error dominates model error}. We argue for a benchmarking protocol that fixes the model, data, and sampling parameters and that reports relative-error metrics alongside absolute ones. Code and analysis tools are available at https://github.com/ShwStone/DecodingPredict.