Personalized Federated Vector Autoregression with Personalization Diversity

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Personalized federated learning can improve estimation for high-dimensional time series while preserving client-specific dynamics. However, parameter heterogeneity creates a fundamental ambiguity between shared and personalized structure. We introduce the principle of personalization diversity, under which genuinely personalized effects recur in only a limited fraction of clients. Based on this principle, we propose PerFeCT-VAR, Personalized Federated Vector Autoregression via Frequency-Capped Thresholding, which decomposes each client-specific transition matrix into shared low-rank dynamics, shared sparse links, and personalized sparse departures. A cross-client frequency cap yields a sharp shared--personalized separation threshold and motivates frequency-capped thresholding for federated estimation. Our theory further accounts for heterogeneous client distributions through a distributional compatibility condition and establishes joint linear convergence of the shared and personalized components. Under sufficient personalization diversity, the shared dynamics retain federated total-sample-size gains while the personalized components achieve client-level accuracy. Simulations and an application to multi-store retail revenue data demonstrate the predictive and interpretive benefits of the proposed framework.