Attention Tax, Handoff Tax: A Stylised Model of When Multi-Agent LLM Systems Help

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Recent work on multi-agent LLM systems reaches sharply different conclusions: some results show that a single agent with the same information and compute should dominate a delegated system, others that multi-agent gains grow with task depth. We argue that much of the disagreement comes from modelling different bottlenecks, and introduce a stylised reliability model built around two trade-offs. Decomposition reduces the burden of long contexts but incurs a handoff tax when information is compressed or transferred between agents. Redundancy gains from multiple samples, but its benefit depends on how much their failures are shared. With reasoning budget, verification, and task structure added, the model yields two crossover conditions: decomposition becomes preferable once the attention cost avoided by resetting context exceeds the handoff cost, and parallel sampling at equal budget is eventually preferable when its shared-failure floor lies below the error floor of one agent thinking longer. We connect these regimes to recent theoretical and empirical results. On a ledger-reconciliation task we measure the context-degradation curve and the handoff tax from single-agent and handoff runs alone. From these the model places the crossover at depth 10 and predicts decomposition to win at depths 20, 50, and 100. It does, on step-level and final-balance accuracy, and the decomposed system's success, which the prediction never sees, lands within 9 percentage points of the predicted rate at every depth.