Not All Answers Are Contextually Persuadable: Inference Dynamics in Large Language Models under Contextual Influence

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At the core of modern prompting techniques is contextual sensitivity, the ability of large language models to adapt their predictions based on inference-time context. Despite its central role, inference behavior under strong contextual influence remains poorly understood, particularly at the level of internal inference dynamics. We introduce a theoretical framework for analyzing contextual influence through inference dynamics, enabling quantitative characterization of inference behavior beyond output-level answer changes. Our analysis shows that inference dynamics do not exhibit unbounded drift under repeated contextual assertions. Instead, predictive representations converge to stable, query-dependent regimes that fundamentally constrain whether contextual signals can alter a model's prediction. This leads to a surprising finding: Repeated contextual assertions do not act as accumulating evidence during inference and may therefore fail to alter a model's prediction even under unbounded repetition, while in other cases a prediction change becomes inevitable. We empirically validate our theoretical predictions, demonstrating strong alignment between theory and observed inference behavior. These contributions offer a principled pathway toward characterizing the limits of contextual influence during inference, providing practical implications for model development.