Voltic: Distinguishing Volatility from Stochasticity in Recurrent Memory

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Recurrent sequence models must decide how strongly to overwrite their memory at each token. Read as Bayesian filtering, this write is the gain of a Kalman update, set by uncertainty from two sources that pull it in opposite directions: volatility, how quickly the underlying associations change, and stochasticity, how noisy each observation of them is. First, we show that the update of gated delta-rule memories is the form this filter takes under isotropic uncertainty. Next, we introduce Voltic, a recurrent memory that keeps the covariance anisotropic and makes both noise variances input-dependent, so the write is vector-valued and carries uncertainty accumulated over the sequence. A dense covariance would have to be propagated token by token, ruling out the parallel training these models depend on. We therefore give two assumed-density approximations, diagonal and quasi-diagonal, both of which leave the memory update in delta-rule form and reuse its chunked kernels. On controlled recall tasks in which associations change and observations are corrupted, Voltic leads all baselines. On the task combining volatility and stochasticity, its margin over the strongest baseline is larger at both extrapolation sizes than at the training sizes. In 45M-parameter language models it leads an eight-task reasoning average and achieves higher retrieval accuracy beyond the training context length than gated baselines, at throughput close to those baselines. Deriving the write from an uncertainty recursion therefore makes memory more responsive to change.