BELIEFRAG: Making Adaptive RAG State-Aware under Evolving Evidence

Counts differ because each database indexes a different set of publications. We treat OpenAlex as the canonical count; Google Scholar is not shown (no API, and crawling it violates its ToS).

Adaptive RAG uses signals such as confidence, relevance, support, and retrieval quality to decide when to search or correct evidence. In multi-step retrieval, however, these local signals must be combined into a persistent view of what the current evidence supports, what remains missing, and which action should follow. Existing methods often use such signals as separate triggers, making it difficult to preserve a coherent evidence state across a trajectory; we call this problem evidence-state fragmentation. We introduce BELIEFRAG, a closed-loop controller that updates an explicit state over sufficiency, reliability, conflict, uncertainty, evidence gaps, and acquisition cost, then chooses among retrieval, query rewriting, verification, answering, stopping, and abstention. Across six QA benchmarks with gpt-oss-120b, BELIEFRAG reaches mean token F1 0.572 with 3.89k tokens per question, outperforming fixed iterative retrieval (0.555 F1) while using 39% fewer tokens. The same quality-cost pattern transfers to Qwen3-32B, where BELIEFRAG reaches 0.552 F1 versus 0.523 for iterative retrieval while using 35% fewer tokens. Analysis shows that the main gains come from corrective re-retrieval rather than pruning alone, while several belief dimensions are redundant and calibrated answerability plays the strongest operational role. Calibration improves threshold stability across related evidence sources, although source shift can still invalidate the same decision signal.