Speculative Evaluation of Stochastic LLMs

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Evaluating a stochastic large language model is costly: benchmark scores estimate expected performance from randomized rollouts, yet uniform repetition ignores sharp differences in task-level rollout variance. We ask how to minimize the variance of a fixed-benchmark mean under an exact rollout budget. We develop Speculative Evaluation with a Hierarchical Bayesian Neyman (HBN) policy with pilot size and stage weight jointly chosen ex ante. It runs a short uniform pilot, pools per-task success counts with a hierarchical Bayesian model, and uses posterior expectations of task-level sampling variances for exact positive-integer Neyman allocation. To mitigate the pilot synchronization barrier, HBN-async speculatively executes continuations from partial pilot feedback and retains those selected by the final allocation. Across six checkpoints and 18 benchmark groups, we evaluate 107 nondegenerate benchmark-checkpoint profiles. For rollout budgets of 8-64 per task, Speculative Evaluation reduces variance relative to Uniform by 12.8%-33.6% on average across profiles, outperforming hindsight-tuned empirical and independent Bayesian baselines. Real-generation experiments that account for the pilot synchronization barrier show that HBN-async mitigates its overhead, helping translate statistical efficiency into practical evaluation benefits.