Foundations for Constructing an AGI Regime II: How International Institutions Become Effective

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The previous paper distinguished between the formal establishment of institutions and their effective functioning, and proposed a foundational theory of institutions in which unwritten norms in human society supply institutions with practical effectiveness while higher-order principles provide them with determinacy. This paper extends that framework to international society. Unlike individuals, states do not share a common process of character formation; nevertheless, sovereignty, defense, reciprocity, alliances, trade, and geographic constraints generate recurrent patterns of state behavior that function as unwritten norms in international politics. Geographic conditions in particular constitute material initial conditions from which states cannot easily exit, producing persistent tendencies in security and interdependence. This paper reconsiders the effectiveness of international law not only in terms of the coercive force of written provisions, but also through processes of alignment, conflict, and formation in relation to international unwritten norms. It further treats the postwar international order as an effective initial condition that has accumulated interdependence and cooperation without eliminating existing states, and situates the multilayered bloc structure and soft-landing strategy of an AGI regime as institutional layers built upon that foundation. In the latter half, the paper generalizes an argument from a supplementary reference draft: when the rate of technological innovation exceeds the rate at which unwritten norms can restabilize, social norms enter a state of persistent disequilibrium and variegation. It argues that, in the AI domain, AI-specific unwritten norms are therefore unlikely to provide a stable legal foundation. The conclusion is that international AI institutions should not attempt to legislate the concept of AI in isolation, but should connect AI to the slower and more stable unwritten norms of human beings, societies, states, and the international order. AI Assistance DisclosureGenerative AI was used as an auxiliary tool in drafting, adjusting expressions, and organizing the structure of this paper. The author bears final responsibility for the text, claims, citations, and factual verification. Keywords: international institutions, unwritten norms, geopolitics, international law, international regimes, accelerating returns, AI governance